An Integrated Model for Estimation of Egyptian Irrigation Canal Lining Projects based on Risk

Abstract

Estimators encounter numerous challenges, especially when making cost and time estimates without considering risks that may face Irrigation Canal Lining Projects (ICLPs) due to insufficient and disorganized data, inadequate tools, and conventional estimation methods. This study aims to develop an integrated model for estimating ICLPs’ contingency by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique. This model established on two stages: First, 93 factors affecting ICLPs’ contingency estimation were collected, filtered, and categorized. These factors are classified into cost, time, and risk-related factors. Then, 20 out of 93 were the most important factors affecting ICLPs’ contingency estimation in Egypt. Second, The AHP model was designed on these 20 factors that represented the most important factors affecting EICLPs’ contingency estimation. The developed AHP model was tested and validated using historical data from completed projects. Results showed that the predicted project contingency matches (97.42%) the average estimated contingency for real-case projects between 2021 and 2024.
A user interface tool was designed using Visual Basic to facilitate the use of the final predictive model for ICLPs developers, estimators, and decision-makers.