Analysis of Population Structure Changes' Impact on Consumption Patterns Using Extended LA/AIDS and SUR Models: Evidence from China

Abstract

In recent years, China's population structure has shown significant changes such as accelerated aging, sex ratio adjustment, shrinking family size, rising education levels and increasing urbanization. The study uses data regarding Henan Province from 2002 to 2022 as an example. It combines analyses using the extended LA/AIDS model and the SUR model to explore the impact of demographic changes on the consumption structure of the population and finds that demographic changes, in general, pay dividends to optimizing of the consumption structure, but the impact is multidimensional and complex. In urban areas, the increase in the elderly population inhibits from optimizing the consumption structure, while the growth of the highly educated population and the acceleration of urbanization have a positive effect; in rural regions, the increase of the elderly population and the highly educated population is unfavorable, but the optimization of the sex ratio, the reduction in household size and the increase in urbanization all facilitate the upgrading of the consumption structure.